I Promised Myself I Wasn't Going To Do This

I promised myself I would write anything about ebooks.  The topic has been flogged to death on countless blogs so really anything I would have to say has probably been repeated tenfold.

But I can’t take it any longer.  I have to address this idiocy.

I think this idea that ebooks will replace print books completely has really no good basis and there isn’t much evidence to support it.  In fact, most of the ‘oh print books are going away’ criers are basing their evidence on the glamour and surge of ereaders but I see many of them ignoring this:

Left (y) axis represents number of ereader/ebooks readers, bottom (x) axis represents time

That is a exponential curve. The eReader is the perfect thing that will grow along it.  The people who actually want the eReader will buy it now, thus accounting for the rapid growth.  However, there are only a limited number of people who really want the damn thing (clearly I am not one of them), and the curve will flatten out once the majority of that number has made their purchase.

Contrary to the fearmongering that is occurring right now, print books aren’t going to die out--unless publishers themselves decide to ignore the fact people like print books and stop printing them.  They’re not going to die out because there are still lots of people who will buy print books.

Thinking of the people I know, here is the breakdown:

People who won’t buy eReaders:  60%

People who might buy eReaders, but continue to buy print books: 30%

People who will make the switch to purely eBooks:  10%

Now think of the people you know.  How many of those readers are actually going to stop buying physical books?

Look at the numbers.   People want books, and they will continue to buy them.  As I read through blogs and look at the physical numbers and understanding the simple fact that there is a LARGE section of society that does not want an eBook, Scientist Jenny sits and blinks bewilderedly about where people are getting the thought that books are going to die out.

Okay let’s look at some data:

Sales of ebooks jumped massively since 2009 by 100+ %

Hmmm I wonder why?  *glances up at exponential curve*  Is this growth sustainable?  No.  Why?  Again not everyone wants them, and once the people who do are done buying them, sales will level out and maybe even drop.

Looking at this from a scientific perspective, that’s only a year.  That’s only one year, or two numbers, to compare.  That’s statistically insignificant and so to make any sort of projections or predictions—especially these omgpaperbacksaregoingaway!!-- based soley on one years worth of data is pretty silly.

Sales figures are really the only kind of hard data we have.  I’ve heard some people figure ebook sales will grow and account for 50% of the market.

Huh?  WHERE IS THAT DATA COMING FROM?  Where is the survey showing data for how many perspective people plan on buying ebooks ? Where is the data saying how many people won’t be buying ebooks??  Where is the actual data?  I hear a lot of “oooh people are saying…” but see little physical proof.

Again, right now we’re looking at two numbers.

*glances again at exponential curve*

Yes, I know we’re also looking at growth but again growth from when?  It hasn’t been long since ebooks first appeared so of course there’s going to be growth!  Duh!

There are a few reasons that ebooks won’t take over and all forms of print books will go away (the very idea makes me laugh), but for me the number one reason is this: print books and ebooks are different.  Very very different.  Holding a book and turning its pages, being able to write in it, and just the physicality and the tactility of it is a very different experience from an ebook.  This is why you can’t compare books to music, and those who do aren’t thinking.  There was nothing really physical or tactile about how a person listens to music.  It’s music.  You listen to it.  There is nothing extremely different from how a person experiences music between CD and ipod.  There is a different experience between book and ebook.

And look again at public opinion.  Take a wander around the internet and take a look at the polls.  Print books still beat out ebooks.

The only thing that makes sense for me is publishers would switch over to ebooks for the sake of publishing costs--but again this assumes people are going to be buying ebooks.  I can see smaller publishers doing this, but…the big ones?  I honestly believe that’s a little bit of an overreaction when there are still many people willing to shell out the money for print.  Especially when it appears a large section of society isn't especially keen on ebooks.

You see?  So much of this is based on assumptions that we really and truly don't have enough data for yet.

My prediction:  They’re going to co-exist.  Which is all kinds of awesome.  Ebooks are great for certain sectors of society.  However, I think there’s a lot of predictions going around out there based on flimsy ideas that aren’t supported by data.

And it’s annoying.  Stop it.

Let me leave you with this thought.  When Swanson came out with frozen meals, they predicted people wouldn’t be  cooking again.  Here we are in 2010, and I made spaghetti from scratch last night.